[核心存股] 羅倫‧坦伯頓 Laurnen Templeton-存股族與股票交易量間沒有太大的關係

 ◇ 交易量的迷思





 Sir John Templeton was raised in Winchester Tennessee, about an hour Southeast of Nashville.

  約翰·坦伯頓爵士出生於田納西州溫徹斯特,距納什維爾東南約一小時車程

  *他是「坦伯頓基金」的創辦人,受訪者是他的姪孫女。


 He was the youngest child, and my grandfather is his older brother. And I do think they did a very unique upbringing for the rural south.

  。他是最小的孩子,我的祖父是他的哥哥。我認為他們在南方農村的成長環境非常獨特。


 His father was a lawyer and had an office that faced the town square in Winchester Tennessee, a country town with a courthouse in the middle of the square and his office was across the street.

  他的父親是一名律師,在溫徹斯特的鎮中心有一個面向廣場的辦公室。那是一個鄉村小鎮,廣場中間有一個法院,他的辦公室就在對面街上。


 During the 1920s, farming was not a very lucrative business, and I think on average it would only bring in about $200 per year. So farms often went bankrupt in the mid to late 1920s.

  在20世紀20年代,農業並不是一項很賺錢的業務,我想平均每年只會帶來約200美元。因此,在20世紀20年代中後期,農場經常破產。


 And when they did go bankrupt. They would be auctioned off on the town square. So Sir John's father, my grand-grandfather, would witness these auctions from his law office.

  當農場破產時,它們會在鎮中心拍賣。約翰爵士的父親,我的曾祖父,會從他的律師事務所目睹這些拍賣。


 If he saw that the auction produced no bidders. He would walk down the stairs, walk across the street, and buy the farm for cents on the dollar.

  如果他看到拍賣沒有買家,他會走下樓梯,走過街,用幾分美元購買農場。


 By the mid-1920s, he had accumulated about 6 farms and 20 other houses.

  到20世紀20年代中期,他已經積累了約6個農場和20套其他房子。


 I think it was Sir John witnessing his father doing this over and over again, that really developed his investment philosophy.

  我認為是約翰爵士目睹他父親一次又一次這樣做,這才真正發展了他的投資哲學。


 It's always been one of the biggest ironies in the stock market, and it still exists today.

  這一直是股市中最大的一個諷刺,至今仍然存在。


 When the stock goes on sale or becomes discounted and valued, it produces even fewer buyers.

  當股票打折或降價時,它吸引不多的買家。


 But when the stock gets more expensive, it brings in even more buyers.

  但是當股票變得更貴時,它會吸引更多的買家。


 Sir John had a great way of phrasing this, he said, "Higher prices lead to higher prices, lower prices lead to still lower prices. "

  約翰爵士對此有一個很好的表達方式,他說:「高價導致高價,低價導致更低價。」


◆ 存股族與股票交易量間沒有太大的關係


  不管在哪個市場,台股、美股、港股,由於市場規模龐大,投資人的注意力無法覆蓋整個市場,因此很容易找到交易量極低的個股。


  這些個股之所以交易量低,通常是因為還沒有被市場注意到,或者不符合市場的短期需求。例如,外資可能會偏好大市值的股票,內資自營商或投信可能會偏好傳統產業或短線獲利的股票。


  對於存股族來說,交易量低的個股反而可能成為優勢。因為我們持有股票的時間通常較長,因此不必擔心短期的市場波動。


  因此,在存股時,我們不應該過度在意交易量。只要個股符合我們的投資策略,並且具備長期價值,那麼就可以買進持有。



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