◇ 股市投資需要承擔多少風險？
Somebody earned, or made 20% in the stock market in a particular year, and the stock market's only up a fraction of that, you have to ask, how much risk were they taking?
有人某一年在股市中賺了20%，而當年市場只有漲了一小部分，你會問，他們承擔了多少風險？
Let's talk about individual and risk-taking. It's not so much that people should take more or less risk, other than the obvious demographic situations.
讓我們談談個人與風險承擔。除了那些明確的人數統計之外，並不是說人們應該承擔更多或更少風險。
My point about risk-taking is that you take the amount of risk that's appropriate for you, but realize that risk is the price you pay for the return you get in the stock market.
我對於風險承擔的觀點是，你要承擔適合你自己的風險，但你要意識到風險是你在股市中獲得報酬的代價。
If you think you're going to invest in the stock market and earn 7% or 8% a year over time, that's about what the U.S. stock has returned since indexes started measuring return in the late 1800s.
如果你想要在股市中傳差不多每年7% ~ 8%的報酬，那剛好是美國股市指數從1800年末開始後到現在的年化報酬率。
If you expect to earn 7% or 8% a year, sometimes you're just going to be along for the ride. That is the risk.
如果你預計要賺7~8%一年，你大部分的時候只要順其自然就好，這就是風險。
So you don't have to embrace risk, but you have to recognize it. Don't think that you can short circuit risk.
所以你不必擁抱風險，但你需要去認識他，不要認為有捷徑可以避免風險。
There's a famous Peter Lynch quote, that's the long-time, famous Fidelity mutual fund manager. He said, "The secret to making many in stock is to not get scared out of them. "
這裡有一句彼得林區的銘言，他是曾在富達基金的出名基金經理人，他說：「在股市賺錢的祕密就是不要被它嚇到。」
It's not so much about taking risks. I think it's just about investing, continuing to invest, and not trying to get out of the market or time the market.
這並不是說要承擔風險，我認為只是關於投資、持續投資，然後不要嘗試離開試場或刻意等待時機。
If you cannot sleep at night, it's not so much that you have too much risk. I think you're thinking about the stock market incorrectly.
如果你不能在晚上睡著，那不太是因為你承擔了太多風險。我認為是你對於市場風險的概念不太正確。
Have the right amount of risk, but in a situation like this, if you can't sleep well, then you probably just thinking about the risk wrong.
承擔適量的風險，但在這樣的情況下，如果你睡不好，有可能是你對於風險的考量是錯的。
It may not be that you have too much risk. You're probably just thinking about risk wrong.
可能不是你的風險太大，是你錯誤地考量風險。
◆ 恐懼來自於未知，先假設最壞狀況
對於完全沒有接觸過股市的人總是對於股市有種不明的恐懼，需要很多錢、風險很高、或者根本認為股市是個淺碟、賭場之類的，會這麼說的幾乎是因為他心目中股市的概念還幾乎停留在自己父母、爺爺奶奶那輩，進而因為恐懼而迴避了了解的機會。
我們應該換個思路來去處理風險，不是想辦法避開他或盲目地相信風險不存在，而是在訂定自己投資的策略時，不管是什麼樣的投資／投機，房市也好、股市也好，甚至是令人詬病的加密貨幣投機也好，換個思路在於「假設我現在開始投資／投機，明年就會馬上遇到風險怎麼辦？我該怎麼調整目前的策略讓風險落入可能的承受範圍」
這裡的調整策略當然不是避開風險這途了，風險源自於未知，源自於意外，我們不可能全知全能，也不可能避開所有的意外，以股市來說，應該是要直接地模擬或假設「明年or投資最終目標前，就直接遇上50%下跌的狀況」，這也是船長我在於自己的投資策略上每每都會假設自己在退休那年開始完全靠股市收入營生後，卻在那年遇上最大的金融風險資產直接少一半的原因，確保那時就算資產意外砍半了我還生活得了，這樣就沒有後顧之憂，也不用擔心市場起伏而睡不著了。
＜＜上一篇：史考特‧納遜斯 Scott Nations－關於股市紀律，判別自己的投資、投機屬性。
下一篇：史考特‧納遜斯 Scott Nations－處置效應：投資人的出售決定受到股價的影響。＞＞