◇ 情緒是投資績效最大的敵人
Emotion is the greatest enemy of superior investing.
情緒是優秀投資的最大敵人。
If you take a look at most people in that they're called the herd or the consensus, as the economy does well, as the company's profits grow, as it reports higher earnings, as the stock rises, most people are more and more and more excited about it.
如果你看看那些大部分的投資人，他們被稱為羊群或者共識，當經濟發展向好時，當公司獲利成長時，當報告說賺很多錢時，隨著股價上漲，大部分的人們越來越來越興奮，對它越感興趣。
More optimistic, more trusting, and more inclined to buy.
更樂觀，更相信，更傾向於購買。
So the higher the price, the more buying they do.
所以價格越高，越多人買。
Then eventually things stop going so well. The economy turns down, the corporation's profits contract and three earnings announcements are negative, the price of the stock declines, and people get pessimistic and depressed, and more likely to sell.
然後最終事情不再那麼順利了，經濟下行，公司利潤萎縮，三份財報均為負數時，股價下跌，人們變得悲觀沮喪，更傾向於拋售。
So higher the price, the more likely they are to buy, the lower the price, the more likely they are to sell.
所以價格越高，他們更想去買，然後價格越低，他們更傾向於賣掉。
This is the opposite of what we should be doing.
這與我們應該要做的事是相反的。
We should be selling out as the price rises, perhaps when it gets unreasonable, and we should be getting in with both feet in when it falls.
當價格上漲時，甚至價格變得不合理時，我們應該賣出。而當價格下跌時，我們應該買入。
So clearly, most human emotion is arrayed against doing the right thing.
所以明顯地，大部分的人的情緒都在抗拒做對的事。
And there are a lot of other examples, not just that, but there's a reason why Buffet said, "The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own affairs. When other people are unafraid, we should be terrified because that means they'll pay prices that are too high. When other people are terrified, we should turn to aggresses because their terror makes things available to us cheaply."
還有很多其他的例子，不僅如此，巴菲特說：「別人做事越不謹慎，我們做自己的事情就越要謹慎。當別人無所畏懼的時候，我們應該感到恐懼，因為這意味著他們會付出太高的價格。當其他人感到恐懼時，我們應該轉向侵略，因為他們的恐懼使我們可以廉價地獲得東西。」
I mean the great investors I know are unemotional about their investing and they go counter to these trends.
我的意思是，我認識的偉大投資者對他們的投資不帶感情，他們與這些趨勢背道而馳。
◆ Be a robot when you are investing
參數沒有感情，股價不會憐憫我們，股票是純純的唯物資本，幾乎是個死物，要不是台股不給用電腦交易，否則長線投資絕對能夠靠簡單的腳本讓他變成一個完全自動的、交易頻率超低的自動印鈔機。
對於我們來說如果要追求最大化的利益尋求最佳解，倒是可以假裝自己就是一個玩弄這些數字遊戲的機器人，對數字不要抱有太大的感情，正向負向都好，不會因為上漲而欣喜，不會因為下跌而恐懼，歷史已經重演幾百次，唯有這樣無感情的持續投資，最終才會在市場中獲得最大的利益。
＜＜上一篇：霍華德‧馬克思 Howard Marks－從時事新聞的獲利已不如從前
下一篇：史考特‧納遜斯 Scott Nations－關於股市紀律，判別自己的投資、投機屬性。＞＞